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Z's 3-in-3: Long term thinking • Replacement organs • Distractions

Z's 3-in-3: Long term thinking • Replacement organs • Distractions
By Zvonimir Fras • Issue #5 • View online
The only way you’ll get to your dream future is to plan for it, then build it. It doesn’t need to be overnight.

Thing 1: Long term thinking
…is hard. Your brain just wants the results now.
So you just ignore things that are unlikely to happen soon.
But if you know this, you can work around it.
Max Roser made a chart of cumulative probabilities. Instead of years, you can use iterations.
Instead of planning for the unlikely event to happen today, plan that it will happen at some point in future. With Max’s chart and a bit of mental math, you can be ready.
Cumulative probabilities by Max Roser
Cumulative probabilities by Max Roser
So now that you’re planning for the future, let’s see what it could look like.
Thing 2: Spare organs
The year is 2167.
You made it. Your generation is the first expected to comfortably live into 200s.
“Well, ‘comfortably’ is stretching it a bit” - you think as a notification arrives to your optik. 🧐
Your regular maintenance appointment is in the afternoon. Yet another kidney you powered through. You’re lucky, though - your insurance covers it.
Back in 2022, you’re thinking “No way, Z, why would we call a device ‘optik’?”
I don’t know, we call pocket supercomputers ‘phones’, anything can happen.
Spare organs could be a thing, tho. Surgeons managed to transplant a pig kidney into a human without rejection. This means we won’t need to maintain human clone farms. Our friendly bacon friends might be enough. (Yes, I hope we can do without them too, and if you live to 2167, maybe you figure it out)
Thing 3: What are you here for?
I will have to remember ‘I am here today to cross the swamp, not to fight all the alligators.’
From The Art of Possibility by Rosamund Stone Zander and Benjamin Zander
Distractions come in many forms.
One day you start a job to make enough so you can bootstrap your own company.
The other, you’re fighting for that promotion like a hungry dog chewing a bone - so you can pay for that sports car you use to go to the job.
Your phone is distracting you from the alligators.
What’s distracting you from crossing the swamp?
Cheers, Zvonimir
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Zvonimir Fras

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