Happy new year!
A year ago I made predictions and set goals. Since I can't prove I made them, no point in reflecting on them here. They were also not that accurate, Z.
BUT! No practice, no improvement.
Things I argued over a decade ago at the uni started happening last year (2022) and my hype level is at 11.
Yet I have a feeling 2023 might blow it out of the water.
I woke up at 5:30 this morning and put words down.
Thing 1 - AI predictions for 2023
The full list would take the whole email. Reply and I'll send you the uncut version.
- GPT-4 comes out in March or April, makes a big dent and reaches more people than ChatGPT, and quicker (if they make it available to everyone)
- Google, Meta, and the gang start releasing their versions of chatbots or start integrating them into their products
- Generative auto-completion starts appearing everywhere where you type text (a.k.a. GitHub co-pilot for muggles)
- AI agents that understand your intent and can do stuff for you cross 1M users (a.k.a. ACT-1)
- AI video generation can get you a video summary of your prompt
- We get a generative, custom story-based 3D game
- AI-generated (or influenced) song reaches the top 10 globally
- There's a generative "radio" service that plays the type of music you want
- New AI arbitrage opportunities (think LensaAI) open up
- High competition in AI arbitrage opportunities
I realize I didn't explain some of these things and you might not know what the heck I'm talking about. Should I write more about this?
I don't think this is hype (which is what someone too hyped would say).
We're at the beginning of the wave. It will keep swelling and change the landscape in ways we can't foresee. We need to collaborate with the machines, and level up.
Greg agrees, but of course he would - he's president and co-founder of OpenAI, the company behind GPT-3, ChatGPT, DALL-E, etc...
Thing 2 - The dizzying speed of progress
We're gonna pretend you were born some time in 1890s, deal?
Oct 9th, 1903
New York Times predicts it's going to take 1 million to 10 million years for humans to fly in a havier-than-air aircraft. You're a kid, and you're sad.
Dec 17, 1903 (2 months and 8 days later)
Wright brothers make their first flight. You're a kid, and you're happy.
Life flies by.
Jul 20, 1969
Millions of people watch a live stream of two dudes walking on a huge rock ~239k miles from Earth, where they got to on a rocket. You're a grandparent and your grandkids are happy.
It took humans 66 years to go from not being able to fly to landing on a different planet. It happened within a lifetime.
It feels like we're hoarding capabilities, getting ready for the next sprint.
(iPhone 11 has 100.000x the processing power of Apollo's guidance computer and 7.000.000x the memory)
Thing 3 - Finding your art and defining your mission
Mercenaries work for money. Missionaries build for others. Artists create for themselves.
- Naval Ravikant
I think the goal is to become an artist by this definition.
This doesn't mean there's no art in mercenary or missionary work. It just doesn't make you an artist (by this definition). It makes you replaceable.
You can't replace the artist. They'll do it anyway.